Super Tuesday Part II- the Bitecofer Model

Posted on March 10, 2020 by Patric

For any of you following along, and want to be picayune about the details of the headline, you are correct. I didn’t write a “Super Tuesday Part I” post.  I did however, write that I wasn’t going to post on CrankyOldGuy.com, until AFTER Super Tuesday…because I suspected that everything up to that point was not going to be a clear indication of anything regarding the Democratic nomination.

But now, here we are, on the Tuesday following Super Tuesday, when one of two things will happen…Biden seals the deal, or Bernie muddies the water even more, allowing Trump (and more important, his evil digital general, Brad Parscale) to keep the focus on dividing the party.

However, in the past two weeks, I have become an acolyte to the most unlikely of political prognosticators, a young, whip-smart, 2009 graduate of the University of Oregon, who has gone on to blow up political projection modeling, like nobody else in recent history.

If you haven’t heard of Rachel Bitecofer, it’s time for you to know more.  Because she is not only quantifying many of my own beliefs, but going way further in her stance, that it almost doesn’t matter who gets the Democratic nomination, because it’s mostly just about removing Trump.

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Six States That Matter and Why Iowa and Hillary Don’t

Posted on January 22, 2020 by Patric


It is easy to get excited about the prospects of Trump being removed from office through the impeachment trial before we have to deal with him in the general election.

Wishing doesn’t make it real.

It’s. Not. Going. To. Happen.

But, this week, the big news in the Democratic primary race, is that “she who won’t just go away,” is out stirring up more trouble; specifically for Bernie.  And frankly, trouble for Bernie, is trouble for the entire field.  She is giving more ammo to the circular firing squad, when we should all be taking aim at Trump.

To call Hillary a “sore loser” would be doing a disservice to every playground whiner in the world. She is cut of the same cloth as Trump. Vindictive, obsessed, and unrelenting in her ability to twist facts to make it look like she is the victim.

However, this post is actually not about her specifically (except the results of her hubris in 2016). It is about what we need to watch, and the states we need to win, to finally be done with Trump.
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And Then There Was One? Already???

Posted on October 2, 2019 by Patric

Holyfreakinshirt!  What a couple of weeks.

Nobody saw the events coming, except those in the middle of the fustercluck that is forming around the 2020 elections, impeachment, and the winnowing of the candidates.

And, yes…I’m going to go out on a limb here, and say it. I think we have our candidate. But, not for any of the reasons that I would have suspected.

Impeachment or no impeachment, Trump getting re-elected is all but over. Except it isn’t…not by a long shot.  I’ll get to that in a minute.  But, when it comes down to the cream rising to the top of the 2020 hopefuls, the list is really, really, really thin. And no matter what the polls say…or the fundraising tallies tell us…there is one clear winner here. And, it may just be the American people.

Let’s recap…and prognosticate. 
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2 Pats in a Pod- Patric Shares a Mic with Patrick

Posted on September 20, 2019 by Patric

At my age, there are few things in life that surprise me anymore.  However, every once in a while, you have an experience that is unique, fun, and completely gratifying.  This week, I had one of those experiences, by being a guest on the STR Podcast.

STR stands for “Spent the Rent,” and just the name should give you an idea of how interesting, funny, and self-deprecating Patrick Stutz (aka SelfEsteem Boat Willie) can be.

The STR Podcast is absolutely my favorite local podcast, because it is so very, very local. Like Eugene, Patrick welcomes a huge range of guests, from political figures, social advocates, musicians, and even the occasional college professor.  And the super “insider secret” (that’s not a secret any longer) is that it was suppose to be me and him…”Two Pats In a Pod,” out of an idea hatched in the barber chair.

Yes. Patrick is also my barber.  And that what makes his podcast so amazing. It’s like sitting in the barbershop, mixing it up with whoever walks in, but without the fear of getting nicked, if things get too heated.  And, our conversation got heated…
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