Holyfreakinshirt! What a couple of weeks.
Nobody saw the events coming, except those in the middle of the fustercluck that is forming around the 2020 elections, impeachment, and the winnowing of the candidates.
And, yes…I’m going to go out on a limb here, and say it. I think we have our candidate. But, not for any of the reasons that I would have suspected.
Impeachment or no impeachment, Trump getting re-elected is all but over. Except it isn’t…not by a long shot. I’ll get to that in a minute. But, when it comes down to the cream rising to the top of the 2020 hopefuls, the list is really, really, really thin. And no matter what the polls say…or the fundraising tallies tell us…there is one clear winner here. And, it may just be the American people.
Let’s recap…and prognosticate.
First…the BIG news…impending impeachment.
Yes…our Commander in Tweet is in a world of hurt. Yes, impeachment proceedings are likely to happen. Nope…it won’t all happen before the general election in 2020. There is a better chance of Trump resigning, than the whole process getting done in 13 months (Remember Nixon? Remember clinton? 13 months flew by with no resolution). That’s not going to happen. Sorry folks. Not gunna (doing my very best impersonation of Dana Carvey doing George Bush).
However…things are going to get really, really, really sticky and ugly for the Republican Party in general. Loads of “rats” are already leaving the ship, or choosing not to get near the gangplank. Furthermore, “the gang” is already starting to turn on one another…with the primary “Italian Rat Squealer,” the “worst best friend ever,” Rudy, already setting up his defense team. See ya.
But, my pragmatic side tells me it doesn’t matter. Trump’s loyal 35%-37% is going to support him no matter what…because it is self-serving to do so. If you’re a racist (closet or outed), or a selfish “I want mine now, screw the others, and who gives a crap about the future” kind of Republican weasel (and there are loads of them in our friends and family), then you HAVE to support Trump…just for the chance to say, “SEE? I am not going to hell…yet.”
But, even 45% won’t win an election.
You are all going to get sick of me saying this, but “Winning” in the 21st century, comes down to moving 3% to 5% of the MIDDLE OF THE ROAD voters to your side. And like it or not…that also make Bernie, and anyone who is “super Progressive” just part of the OTHER 35%.
Yep. It’s PragmaticOldGuy here again, to tell all of you who are actively going nuts over your agenda, your candidate, and the latest headlines…when November 2020 comes around, it’s going to come down to the same small electorate to settle this mess. And yes…there is a reason that my chart looks like a big multi-colored breast. It’s going to be the women in the country who will elect the next President. Sorry guys.
There really are only three legitimate candidates left for the Democrats. I don’t give a rat’s patoot what CNN and the DNC is doing to try and gin up drama for the next debate. It’s Biden, Warren, and Bernie. Period.
And, after this week…if I take off my “Anyone But Trump” hat…and look at the race pragmatically to WIN…it comes down to one candidate.
Joe. Oh…Joe…we knew ye well…
Like it or not, whether his punk-ass son, Hunter, is exonerated or not in regards to Ukraine, and now his dealings with China, (all on the coattails of his Dad…while in office), all look very bad. And for about 70% of the American people (and I’m being gracious here), Looking Bad is all they need to check someone off of their list. Joe has not been spectacular in debates. He is a nice enough guy. He is supposedly double digits ahead of everyone else in the polls (which I don’t believe). But, Hunter is an albatross around his neck that is going to be waaaaaaaaaaay too easy a target for the slime-merchants on Trump’s side. Hunter is a freakin’ millionaire lobbyist…who had an affair with his brother’s widow…who just wreaks of K Street and “Insider Washington Money.” Boom. Joe is done.
Sorry…but the marketing guy/promotions guy/pramaticoldguy in me has seen this movie before.
Bernie just flinched…and it was his heart.
Dammitall, Bernie. NOW? You had to have a “heart incident” during the one week we needed you to be strong? Chest pains and a stent. That only works for cockroaches like Dick Cheney. Sorry, Bernie. But, you are too old…and you just proved it.
BUT, WHAT ABOUT ALL OF THE FUNDRAISING RESULTS???? Sorry…that says more about the desperation of his brigade, and their uber-progressive causes than it does for Bernie. And for the love of God…where is all of this money going? Didn’t we already donate millions and millions to his campaign in 2016, only to watch the DNC rip him off? What has changed? Nothing…including his message…and that he is 4 years older.
That fading sound you hear, is Bernie’s heart monitor…and it doesn’t sound like it is up for another year of campaigning, and sure as hell not four years of being President. Forget about him being an easy “Socialist” target. They guy is going to have to have a full-time nurse around him by the time this thing is done.
Which Leaves “Pocahontas.”
Yes. I went there. Because, it is the ONLY thing that Trump seems to have on her…and it has no teeth. Why? Because Elizabeth Warren did the right thing, and apologized to those she had offended. That act alone, is about as uncommon as anyone in Washington admitting they are wrong, or apologizing for their actions (unless they are being hauled off to court, or resigning, like Chris Collins).
The bottom line here…no matter how you slice it…there is one candidate who is almost untouchable. That is Warren. Think about it. If there was ANYTHING on her…anything at all…the weasels at FOX, and for that matter, WaPo and NYT, would have brought it out already. The over-zealous press, who have to fill 24-hour news cycles, are our best vetting sources. They don’t trust anyone. Everyone is fair game. And so far, the most damning thing anyone can say about Warren is that she is a bit “too folksie” and “has too much energy” in front of a large crowd (and she does attract Trump-size crowds).
So let’s recap…
Trump- won’t get impeached before the election. His side will harden up…but he won’t have enough swing voters (like farmers, miners and factory workers to whom he lied) to pull off the election.
Biden- dead by association. Hunter is no Beau. And that is tragic.
Bernie- too old…and you can’t fool your body. Old is old.
Warren – is going to be our candidate. Now…she needs to sell the middle on how they are going to benefit from higher taxes…and I honestly think she may pull it off.
Oh…and that “breast shaped chart?” Because, it is going to be women who are the swing voters that make this thing happen next year. Women. Men have already made up their minds. And yes…I can, and will support a woman, no matter how much her voice makes me wince.
She isn’t “Insider Hillary” and her crudbucket of a slimeball husband. I will campaign for her…and work hard to make sure it isn’t close (even though I still think it is going to be).
Warren…may be our best hope for “getting back our country.” We need someone like Warren. She hasn’t been in politics long enough to be slimed by the insider machinery (like Hillary and Biden). She has great ideas…that are the best of Bernie’s concepts (sorry Bernie…but we’ll credit you with great ideas in 2016), with actual plans that are tenable. She has the energy of 700 Energizer Bunnies, and is actually amazingly relatable when she is one-on-one with Colbert and Kimmel. And, she LOVES the selfie line for goodness sake. Who actually loves mixing it up with her peeps more? Nobody.
Ironically…she is going to have to win over the women in the Mid-West, rust-belt states that Hillary lost. But, I am damn near certain, that she will not be doing some dumbass coronation celebration with Beyonce, while Trump mops up the fence-sitters who can’t relate to that kind of blatant hubris.
It’s going to be a long, bumpy, crazy year. But, in my opinion (and let’s face it…this is my blog…so only my opinion matters), this is Warren’s election to lose.