Six States That Matter and Why Iowa and Hillary Don’t

It is easy to get excited about the prospects of Trump being removed from office through the impeachment trial before we have to deal with him in the general election.

Wishing doesn’t make it real.

It’s. Not. Going. To. Happen.

But, this week, the big news in the Democratic primary race, is that “she who won’t just go away,” is out stirring up more trouble; specifically for Bernie.  And frankly, trouble for Bernie, is trouble for the entire field.  She is giving more ammo to the circular firing squad, when we should all be taking aim at Trump.

To call Hillary a “sore loser” would be doing a disservice to every playground whiner in the world. She is cut of the same cloth as Trump. Vindictive, obsessed, and unrelenting in her ability to twist facts to make it look like she is the victim.

However, this post is actually not about her specifically (except the results of her hubris in 2016). It is about what we need to watch, and the states we need to win, to finally be done with Trump.

In the next 60 days, a far clearer picture will emerge to answer the question, “Who Will Be The Democratic Candidate for the 2020 Presidential Election?”  And by the end of April, we are going to know how the chips fall in the most important states for the 2020 election. By then, we will have results from the swing states that Hillary lost (Trump didn’t win them…Hillary hardly tried in several of them). These same states are slated to be the difference between who will win and lose in 2020.

And…why Iowa hardly matters. 

Here are the key states.
Each State is followed by the Primary Date and the Number of Electoral College Votes it carries.

Iowa- Caucus- February 3rd 6 (not one of the six)
North Carolina-– Super Tuesday – March 3rd – 15
Michigan-– March 10th – 16
Florida- – March 17th – 29
Ohio– March 17th – 18
Wisconsin-– April 7th – 10
Pennsylvania-– April 28th – 20

There is only one of these states that actually votes on “Super Tuesday,” making this date less than “super.” They are Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Democrats Abroad (ex-pats running from the Trump regime?), Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.  While there are a ton of Electoral College votes at stake, most are so consistent, as to be uncontested.  California always goes blue, and Texas is almost always red. So, North Carolina, which is known to flip flop, is the only one to make the “Must Win List.”

The “Must Wins” are the states that are considered “swing states” in almost every election, due to their demographic makeup and voting histories.  They also represent every state that Hillary lost in “upset” victories to Trump. Every. Single. One.

And how did that happen?  It wasn’t a “lack of support from Bernie. It was her own hubris, plain and simple.

Let’s break it down by state…and what she did/didn’t do.  Not to poke Hillary when she is clearly still nursing her wounds (OK…maybe a little), but mostly to make damn sure we don’t repeat these mistakes.

In the Iowa caucuses, Clinton and Sanders were in a mathematical dead heat, with Clinton edging Bernie out by a fraction of a percentage point. In the general, she chose not to campaign on the ground, and lost to Trump, 52%/42%.

North Carolina – she hammered Bernie in the Primary, 54%/40%. Again, she barely spent time on the ground there, feeling that she had already “won” that sate. Nope. Trump beat her by 4%… 51%/47%.

Michigan– is a part of the “Democratic Blue Wall” traditionally, in that they almost always vote Democrat. Clinton barley edged out Sanders 49%/48% which should have told her campaign that they had a problem there.  But, nope…again…she hardly campaigned, and lost the state to Trump by almost the same margin, 48%/47%.

It gets worse.

Florida…a state that Obama barely won in 2012…squeaking by Mitt Romney 50.1% to 49.3% (to Mitt freakin’ Romney!!!), Clinton decided was “in the bag” because of her overwhelming win over Sanders 66%/43%.  Nope!  Trump won Florida by a single digit…meaning just a little work there could have given her the 29 electoral college votes she needed.  Maybe passing up her “coronation tour” with Beyonce in Philly, would have been better spent winning over some Gator fans.

The rest of the states are just more of the same.  Clinton focused most of her time campaigning “close to home” and in states that made her “feel like home” by the winning margins over her rival, Bernie Sanders.

She actually lost the primary handily in Wisconsin (Sanders 56%/Clinton 43%), which should again, have sent a clear message that she needed to do work there. And even without campaigning there in the final weeks, she only lost this Blue Wall state by 1% to Trump.

Unfortunately, her hubris took over in Ohio, where she pounded Bernie (56%/42%) but then get blown up by Trump, 52%/44%.

And then of course, in her “second home state” of Pennsylvania, where she decided to do three separate “victory laps,” including the huge “love fest” with Beyonce (again, after hammering Bernie 56%/43%), she got nailed in a squeaker by Trump, 48%/47%.

What does this tell us?  First…that Hillary is great at placing blame on everyone but herself.  But, most important, the primaries don’t mean jack-diddly, if the candidate that we put up can’t beat Trump…and handily.   AND…you sure as hell had better campaign your ass off, right until the last second, in the states that matter.

And for the record…like it or not…as of this writing…there is only one candidate who consistently out-polls Trump in these key states. Joe Biden.

I am using data collected by the polling group, “”  I am using them only as an example, because the sample sizes on these things is ridiculously small (usually just over 1,000 respondents).  But, also because they amalgamate stats from several polls…and most important, have been labeled “Right Leaning” by most media critics.  In other words, they aren’t part of the “home team,” and are likely not happy with the results.

In every state that matters….Biden wins…EXCEPT FOR IOWA.

Florida – BIDEN – 2.7%
Iowa- Trump by +2%
Pennsylvania – BIDEN +7%
North Carolina – Biden +3%
Wisconsin – Biden +3%

And yes…for all of you Bernie Bros, I researched the same results, and Bernie doesn’t do as well.
Iowa- Trump 5.4%
Florida-Tie (sorry…but we need these electoral votes!!)
Michigan- Sanders 6.7%
Ohio- Sanders-5%
Pennsylvania – Sanders 3.7%
North Carolina- Sanders 1%
Wisconsin – Sanders 2%

What this all shakes out to, is that once again…it’s going to be a close race. And, if we let Hillary Clinton anywhere near the primaries, or as part of the general election process, we are going to be allowing her to shoot her mouth off, along with our chances of removing Trump from office.

Don’t give in to the “my team or no team” mentality that hurts the “whole league.” All of the top four candidates are worthy contenders.  They only diminish our chances of beating Trump, when they sink to the same tactics that Hillary uses.

Hillary. Please. Go. Away.

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2 Responses to Six States That Matter and Why Iowa and Hillary Don’t

  1. Kevin M Moen says:

    Pat, I always enjoy your perspective on things and agree with you most of the time. The polling numbers you site do give an important look into the possibilities of this election. I hope you continue sharing your views on what may be the most important election of our time.

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